EDITORIAL: One Step at a Time

By Jim Galligan

There were almost too many story lines to follow this month in our annual look at the medium-duty truck sector and upcoming model changes.

What factors are influencing truck buying strategies over the next 12 months? The economy? The 2010 emission regulations? How about fewer truck brands?

Those and others, fleet managers told us.

Ironically, there probably is no better time to buy a truck. With Sterling, Chevrolet and GMC leaving the market, dealers and manufacturers have a lot of inventory to unload. Factor in the $6,000 to $10,000 price surcharges that manufacturers are going to add to next year’s trucks for the 2010 emissions technology and you have a very big incentive to buy now.

Unfortunately, at mid-year when we spoke with fleets and suppliers, uncertainty about the direction of the near-term economy was freezing some fleets out of this buyer’s market. How can they commit money they don’t presently have to buy needed trucks if the company isn’t sure when things will improve?

As for 2010 and the difference in emissions-controlling paths, it did not appear as if one technology had an advantage over the other in the minds of the fleet managers. Some want to buy now to avoid the price increases. Others want to wait because they don’t want to be the first running trucks with a new technology and chance the need to deal with unforeseen problems. A couple of managers said they were still paying for poor choices with 2007-compliant models and they were not in a mood to jump into 2010.

For most, though, you could almost feel the shrug of the shoulders through the telephone as they discussed their choices. To paraphrase some, ‘I have to slog through this period and none of my choices are great.’

A piece of unsolicited advice to the engine manufacturers. One fleet manager told us the months of claims, counter-claims and accusations by supporters on both sides of the 2010 technology issue have left him confused, frustrated and wary.

If the point of manufactured-sponsored communications over the past year has been to clarify and simplify the upcoming emissions-technology choices for fleet managers, it may be backfiring by alienating and angering their most important audience.

As for the market itself, there will be three fewer brands and many fewer models next year. It will take some time to work through current inventory, given the economy and the inability/reluctance by fleets to commit to new trucks, but they will be gone. <

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